Although there have only been six runnings of this race, patterns already are beginning to appear. Black Hercules’ victory last year made it five out of six for Irish-trained horses and that’s a fair achievement given the valuable Grade 1 Ryanair Novices’ Chase at Fairyhouse is just around the corner and there have only been 21 Irish-trained runners in the race’s history.

The Irish challenge this year could include Yorkhill and whichever horse Willie Mullins chooses to run will have a huge chance for a trainer who has taken three of the six renewals of the race.

Four of the six winners had already won a graded chase, while six of the nine Grade 1 chase winners have placed in the JLT, so class comes to the fore here, while a bit of experience is essential as none of the six winners had raced fewer than three times over fences. Four of the six winners started in the first two in the market, while all of the six winners ran at the previous year’s Festival, so there’s plenty to whittle down the field.

Interestingly, no horse who was top-rated on official figures has won the JLT and four of the winners of the race came from outside the top three in that category. All of the winners also ran between 32 and 54 days before the Festival, so some recent match practice is certainly a positive.

It is fair to say that this hasn’t been a race for favourite-backers in recent years. Aside from Fingal Bay three years ago, the market leaders have a pretty poor record here. Some 10 of the last 16 winners have come from outside the front five in the market and only two of the last 10 winners have been sent off at single-figure SPs.

This has been a race in which young horses have struggled historically. The only five-year-old to win was Josh Gifford’s Pragada in 1988 and horses aged eight or older have triumphed in seven of the last 11 renewals. However, we are not looking for a horse that has shown his full hand to the handicapper as eight of the last 10 winners (including the last four) had contested no more than 10 races over hurdles. Winners of this race have also often had a spell over fences in recent years; in fact, six of the last 12 horses to get their head in front had run over the larger obstacles.

Another important stat to be aware of is that horses bred in France have a poor record, having had 68 unsuccessful runners since the turn of the century. To back that up further, the last seven winners began their careers in points or bumpers, suggesting that those bred in Britain and Ireland hold all the cards.

For many races at the Festival, previous course experience is key and this really comes to the fore in the Ryanair. Eight of the last nine winners had already tasted success at Prestbury Park and, taking this a step further, four of the last seven winners had previously won a race at the Festival.

Familiarity with Cheltenham can give a horse an edge but proven quality is still a must. All but one of the nine winners since the race achieved Grade 1 status had won a Grade 1 chase prior to arriving here.

With the stiff finish at Cheltenham, it should come as no surprise that those proven over three miles tend to have an edge in the Ryanair. The King George VI Chase has proven a fantastic guide in recent times with seven of the last nine winners having contested the big race at Kempton. This season’s runner-up Cue Card looks likely to head to the Gold Cup so Josses Hill will in all probability be the sole representative of that formline this time around.

Favourites have won three of the last nine Ryanairs and four second favourites landed the prize during that time. Un De Sceaux looks likely to head the market if lining up, with last year’s Arkle runner-up Sizing John, Josses Hill and 2015 winner Uxizandre jostling for position in behind.

Big Bucks’ four successive victories in this race between 2009 and 2012 skews the trends somewhat, but there are still some solid pointers as to the profile of a Stayers’ Hurdle winner. No five-year-olds or horses aged 10 or over have won the race, while all 34 horses in the last 12 renewals that had been beaten in the race before were beaten again.

Irish-trained horses have only won the race once since 1995 (Solwhit in 2013) despite filling the runners-up spot on seven occasions, most recently with Annie Power in 2014 and Alpha Des Obeaux in 2016, while no horse wearing headgear has ever won the race.

Eight of the 10 individual winners this century had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 hurdle over shorter than 2m 5f and winners this century were 18/22 in three-mile graded hurdles during the season.

Likely favourite Unowhatimeanharry is unbeaten in graded three-mile hurdles so far this season and horses with this profile have recorded six wins from eight runs in the race. However, he’ll have to defy the trend that shows Albert Bartlett runners (including five winners) are zero from 14 in the Stayers’ Hurdle.

It may seem obvious when discussing a competitive handicap but a low weight seems to be an advantage in this race. The last eight winners have carried less than 11st to victory and the only horse in the last decade to defy that ceiling was 66/1 shot Mister McGoldrick in 2008. Sue Smith’s 11-year-old was an exceptional winner in many ways but his price was in line with the recent history of the race, as 15 of the last 16 winners were sent off at 12/1 or bigger.

Given the undulating and unique nature of the Cheltenham course, it usually means that course form tends to hold up well. However, in this race, it is worth noting that only one winner since 2000 had previously recorded a chase success at Cheltenham and only two of the last six winners had previously run at the Festival.

In terms of trainers to follow, Venetia Williams and David Pipe have six victories between them in the past decade, including three of the past five renewals.

Empire Of Dirt may have obliged for Gordon Elliott 12 months ago but, prior to that, there hadn’t been an Irish-trained winner since 1982.

The newest race at the Cheltenham Festival has only one running in its locker so there isn’t a great deal to go on from a trends perspective.

However, like its older sister, the David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle, the inaugural running of the race seemed to confirm the point that certain trainers specialise in training fillies and mares while others focus their attentions elsewhere.

Red-hot favourite Limini ensured no shock results were in the offing when positively sluicing up last year, continuing the dominance of the Mullins-Walsh juggernaut in mares’ races at the Festival. Mullins once again has a veritable feast of options for this year’s contest with Airlie Beach, Let’s Dance and even Augusta Kate in the mix.

As with the David Nicholson on day one, it was arguably the two most renowned trainers of mares in Britain that filled the frame last year as Alan King sent out 50/1 shot Dusky Legend to finish second and Nicky Henderson filled both the third and fourth spots with Bloody Mary and Robins Reef.

It’s too early to make a judgement on the age front with the only two four-year-olds in the field last year being big outsiders, but the penalty structure is something worth noting. The first and third both carried the maximum 5lb penalty, so it shows that previous winning experience at a high level could stand you in good stead in a race of this nature.

Since this race became a 0-145 handicap race six years ago, all the winners have run off a mark of at least 137 and all of them have won the race off a mark the same or lower than the one they started the season on.

As with any amateur riders’ race, jockeyship is vital – Jamie Codd has won it four times in the past eight years. Robbie McNamara and Ryan Hatch also appear on the recent roll of honour, so it’s wise to pin your hopes on the top amateurs.

Irish-trained horses hadn’t won this race in 31 years before Spring Heeled was victorious in 2014 for Jim Culloty, but the pendulum has swung the other way as not only did the Irish fill three of the four places that year, they were second, third and fifth in 2015, and Cause Of Causes made it two wins for the Irish in the last three runnings a year ago.

Despite small representation, Irish-trained horses are beginning to make serious progress in the race and must be respected.

Seven of the last eight winners of the Kim Muir have come from the first six in the market, while five of the last eight have been in the first three on the boards, so keeping an eye towards the top of the betting looks a good move.