THERE may well be more to the 2019 Champion Hurdle than a showdown between the front-running Apple’s Jade and the stalking Buveur D’Air, but that scenario is enough to frame the race as a potential classic, and it whets the appetite nicely for the festival.

Buveur D’Air is the obvious starting point having won the last two renewals, and he arguably ran the race of his live to beat Samcro in the Fighting Fifth before a surprise defeat to stablemate Verdana Blue (her jockey looking appropriately apologetic) in the Christmas Hurdle. Buveur D’Air emulated Lanzarote, Dawn Run, Kribensis and Faugheen by taking both Grade 1 events last season, but the Christmas Hurdle asks very different questions to those posed at Cheltenham, and defeat there was not a as shocking as it looked, and he should do better next week.

If there is a worry it is that one of his main strengths has been his slick jumping, but he made notable mistakes at Newcastle and Kempton before a schooling session in the Contenders Hurdle (formerly the Otley Hurdle, as won by See You Then) at Sandown. It is often a distinctive mark of champion hurdlers that they jump with great speed and efficiency, their speed over a hurdle the decisive factor in their dominance. Buveur D’Air has always been low and quick over his hurdles, but maybe he’s now leaving little or no margin for error, and there is a fine line between a perfect jumper and one who takes too many chances.

ODDS-ON

Apple’s Jade is the moral favourite for this, and I feel that if she had been confirmed as being campaigned for this race at the start of the season, she would be an odds-on shot by now. It’s a curiosity of betting markets that she was available at 100 on the exchanges after posting a performance good enough to win the Champion in December.

That came when she claimed her third Hatton’s Grace Hurdle in stunning fashion, and ought to have catapulted her to the head of the market, but the will-she-won’t-she game was at the “absolutely no chance” stage, and she wasn’t even quoted by some firms at that point.

Two wins at the highest level since have seen her aggregate margin of victory rise to 73 lengths in graded events this season – you don’t need to dig through the record books to work out that no horse has built up such credentials in Champion Hurdle history, and yet she seemingly will not start favourite. Her failure at last year’s Cheltenham sticks in the craw, but the bottom line is that it has taken the excellent Gordon Elliott two years to figure her out.

Don’t forget that she beat the best of her generation by a very long-looking 41 lengths at Aintree as a juvenile, and you must realise that, for all she can have an off day, she is one of the greatest racemares we have ever seen over jumps, to the extent that we have to find reasons not to take her litany of wide-margin wins at face value. The only way she will be beaten is if Nicky Henderson pays for Frankel to hang around by the pre-parade, and she’d probably kick him into the middle of next week as well.

Laurina “could be anything” according to Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh, but she has a lot to find on ratings, and it’s worth remembering that “could be anything” also includes the possibility of being massively overrated. The race she won at last year’s festival is an anomaly, if not an outright abomination, and it’s crazy that she is as short as she is in the betting given what little she has actually achieved.

Melon ran well when second to Buveur D’Air last year, but the bald facts are that he has won a maiden hurdle and a weakly-contested Grade 2 from 10 starts over hurdles, and he was absolutely buried by Apple’s Jade at Leopardstown.

Sharjah beat Supasundae and Melon at Leopardstown over Christmas to gain his second Grade 1 success, but is another who has come up short, finishing eighth in the Supreme last season. He’s clearly improved, but the presence of Tombstone in the frame of those Grade 1 contests suggests he’s not been achieving a huge amount in races run to suit, and the fact that he has lost seven of his 12 starts over timber tells its own story.

If there is any value for each way punters it’s in Supasundae, who will be underrated having been slammed again by the wondermare at Leopardstown.

VERDICT

1. Apple’s Jade

2. Buveur D’Air

3. Supasundae