WITH hundreds of runners and dozens of races across four days at the Cheltenham Festival in March, it can be easy to overcommit yourself in betting terms in a desire to get a slice of the action. There are, however, ways in which to take an interest in the majority of the races without having to risk the farm. One of them is to have a go at the Placepot, a pool bet in which you aim to get a horse placed in each of the first six races.

All bets have to be made before the start of the first qualifying race and winning tickets get a share of the total money staked (less a 27% takeout). The pool has exceeded £1m every day in the last three years at the Cheltenham Festival.

‘Placed’ means a finish in the first two in races of from five to seven runners, or a finish in the first three in races of eight runners or more, unless it is a handicap of 16 runners or more, in which case the first four places apply. The good news is that there is a lot of ‘mug’ money in Placepot pools. The bad news is that, unless you take steps for it to be otherwise, you could end up being one of the mugs! Fortunately, there are a few simple steps that can be taken to give yourself a better chance.

When all is said and done, the Placepot can be fun. But there is a lot more fun to be had in getting a couple of hours’ run for your money – and maybe even having a decent pickup at the end of it – than in going out at an early stage through lack of planning.

The remainder of this piece will try to tip you in the right direction of increasing your chance of success in the Cheltenham Festival Placepot without losing that element of fun.

In addition to the place terms mentioned above, it is important to be aware that selections on horses which end up being non-runners automatically go on the favourite. This can have the effect of making favourites much shorter than they should be, which presents an opportunity for the shrewd Placepotter.

Non-runners tend to be few in number at the Cheltenham Festival, but a marked change in the ground may prompt a significant increase in them. If they occur, they may also affect the number of places on offer. A horse that looks a banker to make the first three may be far less appealing to make the first two, even in the absence of one or more of the original rivals.

You should also be aware that the takeout on Placepot pools in the UK is 27%, meaning that £73 is returned to the public for every £100 staked. You have to be pretty good to beat such odds, but the recreational nature of the bet for many punters gives the discerning investor a realistic chance.

Placepot dividends at the Cheltenham Festival are returned to £1 stakes, but it is possible to use smaller units in permutations. Indeed, spreading the risk around, rather than putting all of your eggs in one basket, is usually a good policy.

In order to calculate the number of bets involved, you simply multiply the number of selections made in each leg across the six qualifying races. For instance, if you made two selections in each race, that would involve 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 bets, or 64 units. At £1 per unit, that would be a £64 bet, but £32 at 50p per unit, and just £6.40 at 10p per unit.

Permutations allow you to play to your strengths and take suitable coverage in difficult or easy races. The tables that follow give an indication of which races have historically fallen into which of those two categories.

Every serious Placepot punter I know of places their bets late (but not too late!) in order to utilise as much of the available information as possible. In addition to non-runners, there could be a late plunge on a horse you consider to be a false favourite, or there could be a change in conditions that makes a shortie vulnerable on account of the ground or on account of stamina – or both.

While you ideally want to get through to the final leg with a fighting chance, there should be a trade-off between achieving that and avoiding the obvious. There can be some huge pickups to be had, but also some negligible ones. The opening day of the Cheltenham Festival in 2013 saw one of the races moved to later in the week and favourites (as well as some second-favourites and third-favourites) placed in the remaining quintet. The dividend was just £10.90. Against that, Cheltenham Gold Cup day in 2014 saw not one favourite placed and nothing shorter than 14/1 making the first three in the big race (which went to 20/1 Lord Windermere). The payout came to £44,616.30. I know which one I would like a slice of! Rather more achievably, Cheltenham Gold Cup day in 2016 saw a payout of £1,680.90 despite three favourites and a joint-favourite being placed and every race featuring a placed horse at 11/1 or shorter.

“If he stands up, he wins it” might be a bet-compelling observation about an even-money chance who has a one chance in three of falling, but it makes no appeal about the same horse if it is long odds-on in the place market. Learn to distinguish between the solid contenders – who are often undervalued in both the win and the place market – and those who are as likely to fall or finish nowhere as to win.

Other indicators of the former may be horses which have nothing to prove in terms of stamina, or who have good form in the book but appear to lack the potential of less-proven rivals. In addition, hold-up types may be better propositions than those likely to get involved in a dogfight up front (and either prevail or pay a hefty price).

It is also a good idea to keep an eye out for those who have proved their ability under similar circumstances to those which will obtain: that is, horses with form in big fields and at previous Cheltenham Festivals, even if it leaves them with a bit to find. The unforgiving crucible of Prestbury Park in March has found out many a talked-up contender.

The following tables give details of Placepots at the last five Cheltenham Festivals, including the maximum payouts and average payouts by each day. The details for “Small perm” are derived from the amount of coverage you would have needed to give yourself a greater than 50% chance of getting through to the next leg in a typical year, as judged by the horses’ odds in separate place markets. The details for “Large perm” are the same, but with the level set at greater than a two-in-one chance. Both are intended to give an indication of the “difficulty factor” normally associated with the race in question, while also illustrating how this might be tackled through permutated selections.

TUESDAY

Historically, the first day of the Cheltenham Festival has been the least rewarding for Placepot punters, as reflected in those maximum and average payouts, as well as by the relatively small number of lines required to give yourself a reasonable or good chance of getting through each leg. The Mares’ Hurdle has been particularly one-sided, though that may turn out to be different in the post-Quevega era. Even in 2015, when the long odds-on Annie Power famously fell at the last with the race at her mercy, the second and third-favourites were on hand to capitalise.

The staying handicap chase – in particular – and the National Hunt Chase usually require greater coverage. The latter, run over nearly four miles, is a good example of a race in which a well-fancied contender can switch from going well to going nowhere as its stamina gives out. At the time of writing, the picture for the Champion Hurdle looks very uncertain. Even if the shorter-priced horses get there, they are likely to have doubts concerning their soundness or suitability. This could be a race in which to take a chance.

WEDNESDAY

Day two has been the second-best day for Placepot payouts in the last five years, though it could be argued that it is the toughest card of all, with 216 lines (which would cost £21.60 to a 10p stake) required to get good exposure in a typical year. Unsurprisingly, the Coral Cup – with its big field of closely matched horses – has been a particularly tough nut to crack. The temptation may be to include even more than three selections, but that would increase the cost of a ticket unless selections are dropped elsewhere.

It is, at this stage, easier to see a proper turn-up in a race like the RSA Chase or the Cross Country Chase (which features 32 fences of sometimes devilish difficulty) than in the Champion Chase. Regarding the RSA, there are a good number of staying novice chasers who have run good time figures in handicaps and who may be underrated by the wider public if they go for this race, given that it has taken less winning than other novice events at the Festival in recent years. A good time figure is an indication of reliable form – just the sort we want on our side in a Placepot – and the Time Will Tell column in The Irish Field identifies them on a weekly basis.

THURSDAY

The action switches from the Old Course to the New Course halfway through the Festival, and the challenge faced by horse and rider changes, at least on the hurdles course. The third-last obstacle is nearly a mile from the finish on the New Course (around half that on the Old one), and the balance tips away from jumping and more towards stamina and ability.

Both the Pertemps Final and the Stayers’ (formerly World) Hurdle are at around three miles, and deficiencies in stamina are likely to be exploited. The hill at Cheltenham at the end of a marathon trip is not where you want to find that your hot fancy is fast running out of stamina and going from a Placepot pleaser to a distant also-ran. It may also pay to concentrate on those in the Ryanair Chase who are specialists at around two and a half miles rather than running here as an afterthought or because they are considered not quite good enough for the Cheltenham Gold Cup or Queen Mother Champion Chase.

FRIDAY

That monster Placepot payout in 2014 skews the figures on the final day, but Friday was also responsible for a biggie in 2016 and is alone across the four days in having a dividend of at least £100 in each of the last five years. If you choose just one day to have a go, then this should probably be it.

The same remarks about course layout and stamina apply as on the penultimate day, and that could be especially relevant for the Triumph Hurdle, in which many ex-flat horses are bound to feature.

A lot of juvenile hurdles are falsely run and do not test stamina much, but this is most unlikely to be of that genre. Again, The Irish Field’s Time Will Tell column should help to sort the wheat from the chaff on this score.

Time analysts have their doubts about the claims of Thistlecrack for the Cheltenham Gold Cup at the time of writing, though that could change.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup is not always well-run, but the Foxhunter usually is, and stamina, jumping ability, jockeyship and a bit of luck can count for plenty in the latter. That said, one or other of the form horses usually comes to the fore in the Foxhunter: all of the last five years have had a horse at 11/2 or shorter placed come the line.

If everything goes right, and you find that you get a pickup, then it should be remembered that you may have won more than once if having done a permutation. Simply multiply the number of placed horses by each leg (eg, 1 x 1 x 2 x 1 x 1 x 3 = 6), then by the unit stake (eg, 25p = £1.50), and lastly by the dividend to get the sum due to you. The Placepot may involve a bit of arithmetic, but, let’s face it, calculating winnings never becomes boring.