IT’S that time of year. The First Saturday in May. The Kentucky Derby. And it’s time for our annual “Why he’ll win. Why he won’t win” for the 150th Kentucky Derby. (Race is live on VirginTwo at 11.57pm tonight).

If you’re checking our notes from last year…

Mage. Why he’ll win. Talented, low-mileage colt who could be improving. Hall of Famer Javier Castellano has every big race on his plaque except for the Derby. Why he won’t win. Just three races under his belt and has yet to stave off Forte. Well, he didn’t have to stave off Forte. The favorite scratched on the morning of the race and Mage had his day.

1. Dornoch

Danny Gargan/Luis Saez

Why he’ll win? He’s won three races, all on the lead. He’s lost three races, all off the pace. Drawing the rail, he has one option.

Why he won’t win? One option usually leads to one fate.

2. Sierra Leone

Chad Brown/Tyler Gaffalione

Why he’ll win? Talented son of Gun Runner who cost $2.3 million and has lost once (by a nose) in four starts.

Why he won’t win? Drawing post two with no tactical speed, he’ll need gaps, breaks and seams to overcome it.

3. Mystik Dan

Ken McPeek/Brian Hernandez Jr.

Why he’ll win? Stamina, poised jockey and if it rains…

Why he won’t win? Finished behind Catching Freedom and Just Steel in previous matches.

4. Catching Freedom

Brad Cox/Flavien Prat

Why he’ll win? Rallied from downtown to win the Louisiana Derby, trained by a 27% trainer. His best race was his last.

Why he won’t win? Another one without any tactical speed who will need more nooks and crannies than cold butter on burnt toast.

5. Catalytic

Saffie Joseph Jr./Jose Ortiz

Why he’ll win? Talented horse who we haven’t seen the best of in just three starts.

Why he won’t win? Fourth start in the Kentucky Derby? He better be Mage.

6. Just Steel

D. Wayne Lukas/Keith Asmussen

Why he’ll win? You want seasoning? This will be his 12th start. You want a story? Hall of Famer Wayne Lukas teams up with the son of Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen to win the Derby.

Why he won’t win? Old-school hard campaigns are long gone.

7. Honor Marie

Whit Beckman/Ben Curtis

Why he’ll win? Bred for it, always finishes his races and Ben Curtis is riding as well as anyone.

Why he won’t win? The wise-guy horse never wins.

8. Just A Touch

Brad Cox/Florent Geroux

Why he’ll win? Brad Cox’s first string, rounding into form and building up to his best in just his fourth career start.

Why he won’t win? He’s no Mage.

9. Encino

SCRATCHED.

10. T O Password

Daisuke Takayanagi/Kazushi Kimura

Why he’ll win? Japan is on its way to world horse racing dominance.

Why he won’t win? If you don’t like a horse making his fourth start in the Derby, you can’t possibly like one making his third.

11. Forever Young

Yoshito Yahagi/Ryusei Sakai

Why he’ll win? Japan is on its way…and this one is undefeated in five starts in three countries. So far.

Why he won’t win? The UAE Derby is the biggest pothole on the road to the Derby.

12. Track Phantom

Steve Asmussen/Joel Rosario

Why he’ll win? Rain!

Why he won’t win? Adding blinkers…tinkering with equipment in the biggest race of a career is a bad sign.

13. West Saratoga

Larry Demeritte/Jesus Castanon

Why he’ll win? Because Larry Demeritte, a dreamer of all dreamers, deserves to win the Kentucky Derby.

Why he won’t win? As a hard-travelled trainer once said to me, “Horse racing ain’t no fairytale.”

14. Endlessly

Michael McCarthy/Umberto Rispoli

Why he’ll win? Talented winner of five races from six starts and a dominant four-length winner of his most recent start.

Why he won’t win? Those five wins have come on turf and synthetic surfaces.

15. Domestic Product

Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz Jr.

Why he’ll win? Always beware of Chad Brown’s second string and you get Irad Ortiz Jr.

Why he won’t win? Has never run fast enough to threaten any of these.

16. Grand Mo The First

Victor Barboza Jr./Emisael Jaramillo

Why he’ll win? Stamina pedigree. Rough trip in Florida Derby.

Why he won’t win? Just 2-for-6 in his career and riding a four-race losing streak.

17. Fierceness

Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez

Why he’ll win? The two-year-old champion. The fastest horse in the race. A 13 and a half-length winner of the Florida Derby. Hall of Famers in each corner. Outside post will allow him to stalk and stay in the clear.

Why he won’t win? Has not dealt with adversity in two losses and the Derby deals adversity quicker than cards at a casino.

18. Stronghold

Phil D’Amato/Antonio Fresu

Why he’ll win? Rolls into Churchill off two stakes wins in California, including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, sports three wins and three seconds in six starts and someone has to quiet the “Where’s Bob Baffert?” complaints.

Why he won’t win? Eked out a neck win over Imagination in the Santa Anita Derby and the California form remains in doubt.

19. Resilience

Bill Mott/Junior Alvarado

Why he’ll win? Bill Mott at the helm of a stamina-laden, later-developing three-year-old.

Why he won’t win? Couldn’t match Sierra Leone, Track Phantom or Catching Freedom in the Risen Star back in February.

20. Society Man

Danny Gargan/Frankie Dettori

Why he’ll win? Because every farewell tour needs an actual finale.

Why he won’t win? He’s only won one race, a maiden at Aqueduct in March, in his career.

21. Epic Ride

John Ennis/Adam Beschizza

Why he’ll win? Rich Strike drew in late, broke from the parking lot and shocked the world in 2022.

Why he won’t win? Because horses drawing into the race at the last minute never win…

22. Mugatu

Jeff Engler/Joe Talamo

Why he’ll win? See Rich Strike?

Why he won’t win? He’s 1-for-12 in his career and won’t run – most likely.

Selections:

1. Fierceness

2. Resilience

3. Domestic Product

4. Mystik Dan