CITY Of Troy will go down in the record books as a high-class champion in a “generally disappointing year for two-year-olds”, according to respected IHRB handicapper Mark Bird, with the number of horses featuring on the European two-year-old classification at an all-time low.

A total of 36 horses feature in the annual listings - 27 colts and nine fillies - and that is the lowest tally since juvenile classifications began in 1978, down from a previous low of 40.

Speaking at the release of the 2023 two-year-old ratings, Bird fleshed out several possible factors in the decline. One such element has been a reduction in representation on the listings from France and Britain.

“Looking at trends over the years, the average this century was about 48 horses on the classification but we’re down this year by 25%,” said Bird.

“That begs the question: are the horses still around, are they not being campaigned and what is the reason behind that? The decline has been marked and notable, particularly in the last decade when the numbers have slipped.

International representation

“In terms of identifying where the falloff has been, I think the number of Irish-trained two-year-olds - largely thanks to Ballydoyle - has remained relatively stable. There has been a drop off, certainly over the last 20 years, in France, and more recently there has been quite a drop off in British-trained two-year-olds.

“This century, the average number of French runners to now has been about seven and it’s down to four this year. The average of British-trained runners in the classification is 24, but that’s down to 17 this year. The average Irish representation since 2000 has been about 15 - the same level as this year. I think what is essentially keeping Ireland afloat is Coolmore and their strong representation.

“Obviously we have a lack of Godolphin-owned horses on the classification this year, and John and Thady Gosden have two horses on it, so there are gaps this year that might perhaps explain why it’s so low. In overall terms, it’s a slightly worrying trend.

“We have a high-class champion this year and there are a number of good horses, particularly in terms of Ballydoyle, but the overall landscape may give some cause for concern given those relatively low numbers.

“I think City Of Troy is probably best described as a high-class champion in what is a generally disappointing year for two-year-olds overall.”

A vibrant international trading market for unexposed maiden winners could also be a part of the decline.

Even Joseph O’Brien’s National Stakes second Islandsinthestream, who features in the classification with a mark of 110, has been sold to race in Hong Kong since his last start when second in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud.

“Are the two-year-olds there, are they not being campaigned or are they being sold to the Middle East or Hong Kong?” says Bird.

“Domestically, for any maiden winner in Ireland, almost immediately you get a call asking what it’s going to be rated because somebody wants to sell it or buy it.

“Over the course of the last 20 years, I think that does have an impact in terms of the number of horses we have in this classification. It’s just the reality of life, really.”