Newbury Saturday

1:50 Bet365 Stakes (Steventon Stakes) (Listed) 1m 2f

I gave Tasman Bay a chance in the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot, but he simply went too hard to last home that day on what was his first start since finishing third to Dubai Honour in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano last summer, and it’s not hard to forgive the run in the circumstances.

Dubai Honour went on to add the Prix Dollar, and then found only Sealiway too good in the Champion Stakes at Ascot, so it’s form which bears close scrutiny, as does a second to Alenquer in the King Edward VII Stakes.

He’s a big, scopey sort who wouldn’t look out of place at Seven Barrows, and I’d be disappointed if he can’t improve this year. He remains of interest despite his Ascot reversal.

2:21 Highclere Castle Gin Cup Stakes 2m 110yds

Once again, Royal Ascot form is of particular interest here, and it’s very hard to get away from the claims of Going Gone, who caught the eye in a big way when running on into a close fourth behind Coltrane in the Ascot Stakes.

That was the first time he had tried a trip in excess of a mile and six furlongs and he stayed it well, giving the impression he might have gone very close if given a bit less to do.

Going Gone had made the running in his previous outings, but had no trouble being held up at Ascot, and clearly doesn’t need to dominate. For all that, I’d like to see him sit much handier at this trip, and he can show that he has plenty more to offer as a stayer by defying a mark of 96 here.

2:56 Bet365 Hackwood Stakes (Group 3) 6f

There is a debate as to the effect of the draw on the straight course at Newbury, with low numbers faring better as a rule when the fields race up the centre, but that can be turned on its head when they race under the stands rail on good or quicker ground, where there is sometimes a faster strip, and that has certainly been the case in the Super Sprint in recent years, with high-drawn horses dominating.

We’ll come on to that race shortly, but I’m also hoping that high numbers have the edge here, as I’m very sweet on the chances of 2000 Guineas flop Dubawi Legend bouncing back now given a chance at sprinting for the first time in his career.

Always held in the highest regard, Dubawi Legend didn’t live up to the hype last year, but he always travelled like a top-class colt, and by far his best performance came when an excellent second to Native Trail in the Dewhurst.

The winner scored comfortably, but Dubawi Legend tanked through the contest, and actually traded at 1.39 to win at one point, before the stronger stayer overhauled him in the final furlong.

What impressed me most that day was the mid-race speed of Dubawi Legend, and that hinted that he would be better at sprint trips.

He was well beaten on his next two starts in Group 1 company over a mile, but he had an excuse on top of stamina when it was found that he had developed an abscess as a result of a broken tooth, which was probably the reason that he appeared to race very freely at Newmarket. He shaped well enough when mid-field in the Jersey Stakes given he raced away from the main action and couldn’t showcase his speed, and I reckon we will see an entirely different horse if he is given his head here.

3:30 Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes 5f 34yds

There are plenty with chances in the Super Sprint, but those drawn high have had a big advantage in recent years, and I think that the maiden Safari Dream from the excellent Rod Millman yard, which has won this contest with Lord Kintyre and Bettys Hope.

Indeed, this race is a big target for Millman, who states on his website: “Every year we head to the yearling sales on the lookout for potential winners but in the back of our minds is one race and one target, the Weatherbys Super Sprint.”

With that in mind, I always try to get an idea as to what juveniles Millman has with this race in mind, and I spotted Safari Dream on his debut at Sandown, where he really should have won, but had his mind on other matters in the paddock, and then ran green with the race seemingly at his mercy.

A proper, powerful, five-furlong type on looks, he was again placed at Windsor on his second start, again looking better than the bare result after taking an early bump and being forced wide.

He tended to hang into space that day, and is clearly still learning on the job, but I’m confident that Rod will have been working backwards from this race, and I’ll be amazed if he doesn’t improve markedly from what he’s shown to date. He needs to if he’s to beat some decidedly useful rivals. But at a big price, I’m happy to pay a premium to find out how good he really is.

Market Rasen Saturday

2:41 Unibet 15 To Go Summer Handicap Hurdle 2m 125yds

Desperately unlucky in this race last year when charging home after the last, only to find the gaps closing on him, Ingleby Hollow was beaten a length yet somehow finished only fifth, much to the chagrin of those shrewdies (hands up) who backed him each way.

He has since shown on numerous occasions how strongly he travels in these good-quality handicaps, again rewarding each-way support when fourth in the Swinton when tipped up here, and while you’d imagine he might be aided by a stiff finish given he tends to come from last with a late rattle, his best form is on a flattish track like this, and it’s finishing speed rather than stamina which is his chief asset.

The concern here is that the pace might not be strong, and he can’t afford to give the leaders too much rope, but none will be finishing better, and he can nab another chunk of prize money in his usual style.

3:14 Unibet Summer Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 5f 89yds

It usually pays to be on the pace over fences at Market Rasen, especially in bigger fields, as the opportunities to make ground between fences are limited, but that produces a conundrum in the Summer Plate as half a dozen of the runners want to be on the sharp end, and it’s not hard to imagine some throat-cutting going on. I’d still not want to be too far out of my ground, however, and the ideal candidate to sit just off the speed before pouncing is the hugely likeable Mahler’s Promise.

Seamus Mullins’s gelding is out of a half-sister to the high-class chaser Indian Castle, who started favourite for the Kim Muir over three miles and two furlongs, and it’s interesting that Seamus has campaigned him at up to two and a half miles for the majority of his career. He’s bred to stay well, and he seemed to relish the extra trip when winning over course and distance last time.

He’s often been a front-runner, but was happy to sit just off the pace here, and jumped really well on the whole before being given the office approaching the penultimate fence. He had a bit more to spare than the two-length margin over Statuario, and I would very much expect him to maintain that advantage despite a 5lb rise.

A second-season chaser, he is the type to progress further this autumn, and is one to follow when the ground isn’t soft. He won on such a surface on chase debut, but bounced off quicker ground on his last couple of starts, and is ready to kick on now.

Recommended:

Going Gone 2:21 Newbury – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Hills., BetVictor)

Dubawi Legend 2:56 Newbury – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (SkyBet, Hills – 5 places)

Safari Dream 3:30 Newbury – 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (Bet365 – 5 places)

Mahler’s Promise 3:14 Market Rasen – 1.5pts e/w @ 11/1 (Hills, 10/1 SkyBet – 5 places)