WHEN a stallion’s eldest progeny are just at the start of their four-year-old season, it is still too early to be able to make definitive statements about his capabilities or about trends that may be emerging among his runners.

We can certainly have enough evidence, at that point, to indicate that he could be destined for the top, or a growing amount that suggests he may not live up to expectations, but even then we are judging him almost entirely on the basis of one full crop of three-year-olds and a smaller proportion of his second crop’s juvenile performances.