YOU have to start your analysis of this afternoon’s feature race at Newbury, the BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup, with Paul Nicholls.

Even since Cornish Sett dead-heated with the David Pipe-trained Horus in the third renewal of the race in 2006, the race has been dominated by the Nicholls name.

The master of Ditcheat has provided the winner - or a winner - in nine of the last 14 renewals.

He doesn’t make it easy this year by running two, and he has history in that regard, like in 2019, when San Benedeto won at 11/1, leaving his stable companion, the 5/1 favourite Dolos, back in fifth place, or in 2017, when Art Mauresque was sent off as favourite and finished seventh behind his lesser-fancied stable companion Sametegal.

Then there was the 18/1 shot Pacha Du Polder in 2013, four years before he won his first Cheltenham Foxhunter under a little-known amateur rider named Bryony Frost.

Amour De Nuit has a chance this afternoon under the same Bryony Frost. But he is 10 now, and a 7lb hike for winning at Musselburgh last time looks harsh enough.

It takes him up to a mark of 142, which equals his peak rating. He has won 14 times in his life, but the highest handicap rating off which he has won is 138.

Progressive

By contrast, his stable companion Tamaroc Du Mathan is only seven, he has run just six times over fences, and he goes into today’s race with a really nice progressive profile.

A 135-rated hurdler, he finished second behind Shishkin in the Wayward Lad Chase and he won the Pendil Chase as a novice chaser last season. He has run just twice this term, he was pulled up in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree on his debut this season, but, after a wind operation, he shaped much better behind his stable companion Dolos in a two-mile handicap chase at Sandown last month.

He didn’t have the pace of some of his rivals that day over the minimum trip, but he still kept on well into fifth place. That was at a time too at which his trainer’s horses were going through a quiet spell.

The Poliglote gelding should progress from that run, his first since a wind operation and his first since last October, and he should be happier today, stepping up to two and a half miles.

Very soft ground would be a worry, but he proved in that Wayward Lad Chase that he could operate on soft ground. The handicapper dropped him by 4lb for his Sandown run, which was more than fair.

It takes him down to a mark of 142, 8lb lower than the mark that he was awarded after he won the Pendil Chase last year.

He has probably been targeted at today’s race for a little while by his trainer and, on his only run to date at Newbury, he finished a close-up fifth, beaten a total of a length and a half, behind another stable companion Pic D’Orhy, in the Betfair Hurdle in 2020. He could run a big race.

Doncaster

Powerstown Park could also run a big race in the Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster later in the afternoon.

Sam Thomas’ horse is nine now, but he has run just six times over fences, and he goes into today’s race on an upward trajectory.

An impressive winner of a conditional jockeys’ handicap chase on good ground at Hereford in early December on his first run over a distance in excess of three miles, he was well beaten in a competitive handicap chase at Market Rasen on St Stephen’s Day.

But that was on soft ground over three miles and three furlongs, just 15 days after his Hereford win. It may have come up too quickly.

Given a break of five weeks after that, he returned to Hereford at the end of January and ran out a good winner of another three-mile–one-furlong handicap chase off a mark of 124.

He made a bad mistake at the second last fence that day, and that gave his pursuer Oscar Robertson a chance, but he recovered his equilibrium and stayed on well over the final fence and up the run-in to hold on nicely.

The handicapper raised him by 6lb for that to a mark of 130, but he is still progressive, and he has the potential to go higher still.

This is a better race than the Hereford race, he will be taking on better horses, but the fact that he travels so strongly through his races should be an asset as he steps up in grade.

Sam Thomas’ horses continue to be in really good form, and Jack Tudor is a very good conditional rider, very good value for his 3lb claim, who showcased his talents once again at Kempton last Saturday in winning the Coral Trophy on Cap Du Nord.

Recommended

Tamaroc Du Mathan, 1.50 Newbury, 9/2 (generally), 1 point win,

Powerstown Park, 3.30 Doncaster, 11/2 (generally), 1 point win,